Ever heard this saying?
"If you torture the data long enough, it’ll tell you anything you want to know."

We bring it up because today, we’re diving into one of the most debated stats in real estate: Open House data. Specifically, we’ll address the question: Do open houses really work?

While hosting open houses may not always be a real estate agent’s favorite task, there’s no denying their potential impact. Quantifying that impact, however, has been a challenge. For instance, there’s no definitive research answering the question: What percentage of homes sell because of an open house?

In this post, we’ll explore this question in depth. We’ll also look at homebuying trends tied to open houses and offer an educated estimate on their role in home sales. Here’s what we’ll cover:

1. The facts: Buyers do attend open houses.

2. Debunking popular misconceptions about open house stats.

3. Estimating the percentage of homes sold through open houses.

4. How changes in the real estate industry may influence open house sales.

Fact: Buyers Attend Open Houses

First, let’s establish a key fact: Homebuyers attend open houses.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 50% of buyers reported attending open houses during their home search. That’s a significant figure.

Yet, for years, misleading statistics have downplayed the importance of open houses, making it seem like they’re a waste of time. Let’s take a closer look at these misconceptions.

Debunking Misrepresented Open House Stats

One stat frequently quoted in real estate circles is that fewer than 5% of buyers found their home through an open house. Recent NAR data shows just 3% of buyers identified open houses as their initial step in the homebuying process.

At face value, this might seem like a weak endorsement of open houses. But here’s the problem: That stat is misleading.

The same NAR survey indicates that over 80% of buyers used the internet, real estate agents, or personal connections as their first point of contact. But how do buyers discover open houses? Through these same sources! Comparing open houses to initial discovery tools like the internet is like comparing apples to oranges.

Furthermore, another NAR survey shows 4% of buyers found their home through a yard sign or open house sign. While the idea of stumbling across a home for sale by chance may seem unusual, it happens.

The real takeaway? Open houses aren’t meant to be the first step in a buyer’s journey—they’re an opportunity to view and evaluate properties in person.

What Percentage of Homes Sell From an Open House?

Now, let’s tackle the big question.

What does it mean to say an open house “sells” a home? When multiple interactions lead to a sale, which touchpoint gets the credit? This is a long-debated question in sales and marketing.

For simplicity, we’ll try to estimate the percentage of homes sold where an open house played a role:

1. NAR data tells us 50% of buyers attend open houses.

2. Buyers view an average of seven properties before purchasing.

3. Older Zillow data suggests buyers attend 2.6 open houses during their search.

If we assume buyers attend open houses for some of the homes they ultimately purchase, we can estimate the role open houses play in sales. Using the 2.6 open houses attended per buyer, it’s reasonable to conclude that approximately 37% of buyers attended an open house for the home they purchased.

While this estimate involves combining different data sources (a no-no for statisticians), it offers a plausible perspective on the importance of open houses in real estate.

The Impact of the NAR Settlement on Open Houses

Looking ahead, the recent NAR settlement may shift how buyers engage with open houses. With buyers now required to sign agreements with agents to attend showings, some buyers may prefer open houses instead.

This shift could lead to:

• An increase in the 50% of buyers attending open houses.

• A rise in the average number of open houses attended per buyer (currently 2.6).

• A potential increase in the percentage of homes sold where an open house played a role.

Conclusion: Do Open Houses Work?

While open houses may not be the first step for most buyers, they remain an important part of the homebuying process. They provide buyers with valuable opportunities to explore properties in person and play a role—often underestimated—in connecting buyers with their future homes.

Whether you're a buyer or an agent, open houses are more than just a tradition; they’re a tool worth leveraging in today’s real estate market.